THE HARD TRADE.

Today⁠—Monday, May 16, 2022⁠—the Flip system triggered a BUY as a result of an infrequent but largely successful oversold signal. This is the same signal that generated a Buy command on the SPY near the 2018 Christmas lows, and on the March 2020 Covid lows. This is only the third time this signal has been triggered in real-time since Flip’s inception. I call this the “HARD TRADE”, because only a computer would buy the market given most people, myself included, wouldn’t have the courage to BUY it myself!

So far this year, we’ve done well by sidestepping a large part of the market’s decline which touched 20% down last Thursday.  A fundamental reason most of you have signed up for the Flip platform is for this exact reason: to avoid the downside and NOT to be forced to watch the market closely; to have “math” and “science” make the tough decision for you; to avoid mumbling to yourself “I don’t want to think about it” or “should I wait ?” or “if I do this now I will have to pay taxes on the capital gains” or “if I sell now and the market goes back up, I’ve locked in the loss” or many, many other aphorisms we have all thought of at some point or another. 

It’s why the market is so difficult to navigate.  They go up most of the time, but when they go down it’s fast and scary … and it is when we are likely to make mistakes that cost us money. I hope and deeply trust that at least one of the thoughts expressed above has crossed your minds before … They have mine. There are many, many more.

More about this recent trade:  This particular signal was NOT generated by the AI. This BUY signal was algorithmic in nature. In particular, because the markets have come down so much so quickly, this trade was signaled mathematically as price in the benchmark S&P500 hit a statistical “large sigma” event. 

Now a little math talk : Sigma is just an expression of standard deviation that occurs very infrequently. We participate in large sigma events because in the short term a “reversion to the mean” is likely near. Markets are “normally” distributed but with “fat tails” .. but even these distributions have a mean and as long as there is some “kurtosis” the event will generally normalize, i.e. go the other way. This of it as a contrarian trade … I’m done with the math talk ! Suffice it to say, the system thinks the market will bounce. That means likely your stocks will bounce because most are part of the S&P500 index and these issues represent the index itself.

So what to expect? The previous two trades mentioned above were highly successful. Both went on to revert  or “bounce” almost immediately. Much of our performance comes at times like this where we attempt to step aside from large down-moves and then attempt again to participate at lower prices. This trade however comes at a with a different backdrop however. This trade comes at a time with high inflation as a backdrop. That wasn’t the case before. The Fed has made only a small ½ percentage increase in the fed Funds rate (rate at which banks can borrow at) and the AI may not have incorporated this yet.

Recession may be a real possibility given these new realities. Again, this was not like the previously mentioned two signals where these issues were absent. The market is in selling mode. My mind is this particular trade may not work out as well but nonetheless the system must be followed, despite the fear. We MUST bet that our homework is more thorough than our mindset. If this trade turns out to be a loser, it must be accepted as the price to “play” .. the ante if you will. It’s a bet by a computer. The computer, I feel at least, is better than the asset manager that tells you “it’s the market, we have no control, it will come back, have patience ….” nonsense.

I will reach out on the next AI circle on the 25th. Please show up to that as I can keep people posted in these crazy market times.

All the best …

Kelly.

Like this article?

The Case For Cash

The Case for Cash   Many people associated investment accounts with being “invested’. After all,...

kelly sikkema zcAgxLryKe4 unsplash

Bear Territory

Dear Flip users  Sadly my accurate prognosticating has continued to be reinforced by the markets....

You were referred by

Zero-dollar ($0) commissions are available for self-directed Individual cash or margin brokerage accounts that trade U.S. listed securities via mobile devices and via web interface. To obtain the commission and fee schedule, please see our website at www.iflipinvest.com. Note that certain Flip Investor Inc. Product features listed are currently in development and will be available in the near future. System execution price, speed, response time, liquidity, market information, and account access times are affected by many factors, including market volatility, size and type of order, market conditions, system performance, and other factors. Some of the information provided show hypothetical results which may or may not represent live performance. All investments involve risk and the past performance of a security, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns.  Keep in mind that while diversification and the use of algorithms may help manage risk it does not assure a profit, or protect completely against losses, in a down market. There is always the potential of losing money when you invest in securities, or other financial products.  Investors should consider their investment objectives and risks carefully prior to investing.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance. iFlip data results assembled using various Flip algorithms applied to the equities listed on this webpage (if any). Results compiled for each equity and each algorithm assume a 10,000 initial investment beginning on Jan 1st 2005. All iFlip price assumptions are based on the opening price of each day as found in Yahoo finance. Yearly NAV data points compiled by compounding annual returns using standard year over year accounting. S&P500 results are derived using the SPY as a proxy. The data on this webpage is not intended as a solicitation. Always seek professional advice for suitability.

iFlip Ultimate

iFlip Ultimate is a concierge service product designed for high net worth client or institutions ($1m+ Net Worth). It as not been released yet

Download our new FREE mobile app!

Floating Mobile App
Free AI Circle 6

Upgrade Plan

Free AI Circle 6

Upgrade Plan

Breakout Coming Soon!

Get notified when it's available.

iFlip Spinner

Loading

Successfully on waitlist. You will be notified as soon as the breakouts are available.

A.I. Smart Folios Automated Stock Trading

Download our app mobile app to create a free trading account.

Certified Partner Signup

Doug Adams copy

Doug Adams - COO

Doug Adams has more than 30 years of experience as an executive in the IT industry. He has demonstrated success helping companies grow profitably with high degrees of customer satisfaction. 

He has a passion for developing talent and building high performing teams. Most recently as a Senior VP at FusionStorm, he helped grow the company from $440mm to over $1bb in sales and improve profitability 1500% (15x) over 7 years. Prior to that he was at Oracle for 14 years where he served as a Vice President in their North America Consulting Division. 

He had responsibility for a variety of software and technology practices with a team of over 400 consultants. He has also held leadership positions at IBM and Andersen Consulting (Accenture), and holds a BS degree from Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo in Industrial Engineering.

Ed Sweeney

Ed Sweeny - Board Member

Ed Sweeney is a partner and a founder of RCM Alternatives. Previously, he was a Managing Director of Trading at TD Options, LLC, a subsidiary of TD Securities until 2006. 

He is also a founder of Starboard Specialty Funds, LLC. which is an active fund specializing in private and publicly traded bank equities.
He was also a co-founder of a trading technology firm, Ragnarok Systems, and also worked for O’Connor & Associates and at Swiss Bank Corporation as a director of fixed income trading.
Mr. Sweeney graduated with an M.S. and B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from MIT, has a J.D. from John Marshall Law School and holds a Series 7, 24 and 63 licenses.

Karla Dennis

Karla Dennis - Board Member

As seen in Forbes Magazine, Karla Dennis is an expert tax and business strategist. As an enrolled agent, Karla is licensed to represent taxpayers in all 50 states. She holds a Masters in Taxation and Business Development and is the author of two books, Tax Storm and Against the Odds. 

She has been featured in various media outlets such as, KTLA, Forbes, MSNBC, Yahoo! Finance, and SmartMoney marking her the ultimate tax and business expert.

Thomas Shippee Bio

Thomas Shippee - Consulting Board Member

Thomas P. Shippee is a financial services investor and industry expert. His early years he earned a Bachelor’s degree in Economics at Bates College and an MBA at Pepperdine University.   

For the last 35 years he has served in various positions including CEO of Wells Fargo Financial whereupon he oversaw all US and Canadian consumer and commercial business finance operations from Des Moines, IA.  He currently spends his efforts in the consumer financial services industry counseling and working for small privately held businesses.  

David Bay Bio

David Bay - Consulting Board Member

David is a Kentucky native graduating with a degree in Music Education at University of Kentucky and a Masters degree in Education from Xavier University. His early years were spent excelling as band director leading his group to breaking records, honors and 3 straight years of placing in state wide competitions. 

In 1988 David started a new life of entrepreneurship. Since then his natural ability to lead and passion for growing people has stretched him to employ over a hundred employees and operating several businesses over several industries including real estate, heating oil, farm gas, commercial lubricant, consulting, skilled nursing care, convenience store and restaurant business.  

Marc C

Marc Chesley - Consulting Board Member

Marc Chesley is a software industry pioneer with a passion for growing people and companies. He is a recognized innovator and operational leader. As former CTO at Infusionsoft, Marc helped grow the company from startup to over $100mm in revenue. He has led as CEO and President of many fast-growth software companies. 

Marc was recognized as Arizona CIO of the Year by the Phoenix Business Journal and the Arizona Technology Council.  The Society for Information Management awarded him Arizona IT Leader of the Year. He currently works as the COO at Paradox (fast-growing software firm) managing product teams, engineering teams, business development teams and serving as general counsel.

Kelly

Kelly Korshak - CTO

Kelly attended Stanford and subsequently the University of Chicago and has a graduate degree in mathematics.  He spent 25+ years on Wall Street, investing over $4 Billion assets for institutional banks and funds including Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Diamondback Capital, Brevan Howard and Tudor Group. 

His strategy to investing is built around the approach that Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) and machine learning algorithms produce superior risk / reward in the stock market.  This A.I. approach led him to retire from Wall Street with his family in Arizona to start up his own company “Flip Investor”.  

His dream is to empower all individuals to grow their wealth through the power of A.I. SmartFolio technology.

Randy Tate

Randy Tate - CEO

Randy spent his earlier years as a successful collegiate athlete and then self-made entrepreneur.  He grew an athletic apparel company to over $5M+ in revenue, then sold it to a publicly traded sporting conglomerate, Sports Chalet. 

For the last 10+ years he has trained thousands of employees and business owners on how to market effectively, grow sales and build sustainable growth in their companies.

His passion for technology led him to one of the fastest growing software companies called Infusionsoft, which peaked with over 150,000 software users.  As the VP of Business Training for customers, he developed and oversaw the expansion of the Elite Business Education curriculum program.

Since then he has led as the co-founder and CEO of iFlip, SAAS Financial Technology Company.  His passion is to empower all individuals to grow their wealth for the future through the use of AI investing technology.